【导读】全球固定收益投资巨头品浩：市场预期美联储今年降息四次
PIMCO, a Leading Global Bond Investor, Says Markets Expect 4 Fed Rate Cuts This Year品浩（PIMCO）执行副总裁兼资产配置及多元实质资产投资组合经理盛宜铭（Emmanuel Sharef）日前接受本报独家采访时表示，中国债券在全球组合中可很好地起到分散风险作用。他认为美联储降息利好大型科技股，尽管这些科技股的估值偏高。市场认为今年美联储可能降息四次。品浩是全球领先的固定收益投资巨头之一。截至2024年6月30日，总部位于美国加州新港滩的这家基金管理公司管理着1.88万亿美元的资产。他们在中国运营合格境内有限合伙人（QDLP）业务，可从中国投资者处筹集资金进行海外投资。In an exclusive interview with China Fund News, Emmanuel S. Sharef, Executive Vice President and Portfolio Manager of Asset Allocation and Multi Real Asset at PIMCO, one of the world’s leading fixed income investors, affirmed that Chinese bonds continue to serve as effective diversification tools within global portfolio. Sharef believes the Federal Reserve’s anticipated interest rate cuts will benefit large technology companies, despite their elevated valuations. He further added that the Fed is likely to reduce rates by four times this year. PIMCO, headquartered in Newport Beach, California, manages 1.88 trillion in assets under management as of June 30, 2024. The firm operates a Qualified Domestic Limited Partnership (QDLP) business in China, enabling them to raise capital from Chinese investors for overseas investments.中国基金报: 美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊·霍尔会议讲话中表示，前进的方向已经很明确。这听起来是给出了明确信号。所以，美联储9月份降息25个基点是市场共识吗?盛宜铭: 市场预期美联储9月降息25个基点或者50个基点，全年可能会有100个基点左右的降息。市场共识预测的降息幅度比美联储预期得更大。我认为这在某种程度上是有道理的，因为美联储眼中不同结果之间的动态平衡已经改变。人们对利率上行的担忧减少了，利率可能低于基本情景是市场担心的地方。不对称性已经有所转变。我们的观点与之一致。鲍威尔指出，目前，美联储担心的不是通胀卷土重来，而是劳动力市场。其他发言人也指出，如果劳动力市场的放缓速度快于预期，美联储可能需要降息50个基点。以上就是美联储前进的方向。这为资产投资者创造了机会。目前的股债相关性是负的，它提高了债券的有效性。在所有投资组合中，我们都强调这一点。The Market is Pricing in One or Two Cuts in SeptemberChina Fund News: Chair Powell said in his Jackson Hole speech that the direction of travel is clear. It sounds like a clear signal to the market. So, 25 basis points cut for September? Is that the market consensus?Sharef: The market is pricing in maybe 1 or 2 cuts in September, and about four cuts or so for the year. The market consensus is for more cuts than what the Fed is tracking. I think that makes sense to some extent, given the fact that the directional outcome has changed. There's less worry about interest rate upside and more concerns about the possibility of rates going lower than the base case scenario. The asymmetry has shifted a little bit. That aligns with our view. Powell has noted that the concern is not so much about inflation resurgence, but about watching the labor market. A number of other Fed speakers have pointed out that if the labor market decelerates more quickly than anticipated, maybe a 50-basis-point cut would be appropriate. And so that's the direction the Fed is heading at this point of time.This creates a lot of opportunities for asset investors. We now have negative stock-bond correlation.It raises the effectiveness of bonds, which we've argued for across all of our portfolios.中国基金报：大多数分析师预计美联储这次将成功实现软着陆。为什么市场预测今年会有较为激进的降息?盛宜铭：软着陆与美国联邦基金利率回到中性水平两者之间并不矛盾。我认为包括鲍威尔主席在内的大多数观察人士都认为，目前的货币政策是收缩性的。分歧在于，收缩性的货币政策应维持多长时间。市场及经济趋向正常化、通胀压力减弱，这个时候回到中性的利率水平是合适的，问题在于以多快的速度回到那个水平。今年剩余时间，无论是三次还是四次降息，最终都会从市场预测到2025年为止的总降息次数中扣除。考虑到当前的利率水平仍具有很强的收缩效应，市场对累计降息幅度的预测，与长期以来利率水平将回归中性这一事实一致。市场目前定价了四次降息。美联储主张在更正常化的环境下降息三次。我们认为市场定价是各种情景的加权平均值。一种情景是三次降息，另一种情景是如果经济放缓速度快于预期，今年有四到五次降息。市场根据这些结果的概率分布，对各种情景进行加权平均。市场没有考虑的是比目前预期更少的降息，甚至加息，这是我们前一段时间所担心的。值得注意的是，市场在预判联邦基金利率的路径上出过很多次错。今年初，市场预期数次降息，然后有一段时间又预期不会降息，现在则重新预期四次降息。市场对降息的预判反反复复，到目前为止，在降息方向和次数上唯一预判正确的是美联储。
China Fund News: Most analysts anticipate the Fed will engineer a soft-ish landing this time, why do the markets forecast aggressive cuts this year?Sharef: A soft landing would be consistent with getting back to a neutral level of the funds rate. Most observers, including Chair Powell, agree that monetary policy at this point is restrictive. They've been arguing that monetary policy is restrictive for some time, and about how long to maintain restrictive monetary policy. To the extent that the market and economy is normalizing with inflationary pressures decreasing, it is appropriate to return to a more neutral level of the funds rate. The question then becomes how quickly to return to that level.
I think whether you price in three or four cuts for the rest of the year, that just ends up taking out of the number of cuts that get priced into 2025. So, I think the cumulative level is still consistent with a return to the long run neutral level, given how restrictive it is.The market is pricing in four cuts. The Fed is arguing for about three cuts in a more normalized environment. We think about the market pricing as a weighted average between various scenarios. One scenario is that you get three cuts, and another scenario is that you get four to five cuts this year if things start to slow down more rapidly than anticipated. The market ends up weighted-averaging those various scenarios based on the probability of those outcomes.One thing that isn't really being weighted in the market is a scenario where you get fewer cuts, or a scenario where you get hikes, which was a worry that we had some time ago. The market has been wrong quite a lot about the path of the Fed funds rate. Remember, at the beginning of this year, the market was pricing in several cuts, then for a while it was pricing in zero cuts, and now it's pricing in four cuts again. So far, the only ones that have been right about the direction and the number of cuts have been the Fed.中国基金报：去年，商业地产是美国的一个风险来源。你认为这种风险缓解了吗?盛宜铭：高利率环境和普遍紧缩的经济和信贷环境下，商业地产借款人在债务到期时可能难以再融资，甚至难以进行债务展期。对于很多贷款人和借款人来说可能是这样的。他们要么找到延长债务期限和重组债务的方法，要么在某些情况下转向私人市场寻求机会。在公开市场之外进行重组，有时被迫接受更苛刻的条款。通胀得到控制以及美国开始回归低利率环境，这对商业地产有所帮助。这降低了商业地产的风险，再融资不再是一个大问题。话虽如此，商业地产领域仍然存在相当多的风险，存在结构性问题，因为不是每个人都会回到办公室和购物中心。相反，部分商业地产，例如公寓的需求很高。美国仍然有很大的住房需求。也就是说，商业地产不是铁板一块。China Fund News: Last year,commercial real estate was a source of risk in the United States. Do you think that risk is alleviated?Sharef: In a high interest rate environment and a generally tight economic and credit environment, it could potentially be difficult for commercial real estate borrowers to refinance their debt as it matures, or even roll over their debt. That would be the case for a good number of lenders and borrowers. They have to either find ways of extending their debts and restructuring their obligations, or in some cases, go to private markets to seek opportunities, effectively restructuring outside of public markets using sometimes more difficult terms.The fact that inflation was contained and that we've started to return to a lower rate environment helps. That's effectively what all these restructuring attempts were hoping for. This reduced the risk in commercial real estate to some extent because that refinancing wall is not as much of a problem anymore.That said, there are still quite a lot of risks across commercial real estate sectors. There are structurally problematic sectors, including office, because not everybody's returning to the office and malls. Conversely, there are sectors of commercial real estate, like apartments, that are in high demand. There's still a lot of need for housing in the United States. The commercial real estate is not just one unified block, of course.盛宜铭：这取决于雇员和雇主的议价能力。目前，劳动力市场仍然相对紧张，同时雇员拥有相当大的谈判能力。不少人更想在家工作或者灵活办公。因此，在这种环境下，在家工作和灵活安排（每周在家工作一到两天）仍然相对普遍。当我们进入一个劳动力市场疲软、劳动力供给增加、劳动力需求可能略有下降的环境时，劳动力需要变得更具有服从性，那时谈判的平衡和权力的平衡就会向企业转移。你可能会看到更多的人在办公室工作，而在家工作的人会减少。所以这真的只是由劳动者的议价能力决定的。China Fund News: Do you think people will return to the office eventually? Sharef: It’s a function of the power of labor. Currently, the labor market is still relatively tight with a fair amount of negotiating power, and there is a desire for individuals to work from home or have a certain amount of flexibility. So in this environment, working from home and flexible arrangements where you work one or two days from home are still relatively common.I think if we get into an environment where the labor market eases, when there's more labor supply and less demand, and more need for labor to become accommodative, the balance of negotiations and power would shift towards corporations. You would probably see more people working from the office and less working from home. So it's really just a function of that.中国基金报: 在前一段时间非常动荡的一周后，我们看到资本重新流向日本。全球投资者是不是庆祝得太早了?盛宜铭： 日本经济名义增长和通胀均转正，这代表经济活力的复苏。随着时间的推移，企业已经通过公司治理改革改善了资产负债表。日本央行也在努力实现软着陆。美联储和日本央行的主要区别在于，日本央行是从底部出发（就利率水平而言），而美联储是试图从顶部着陆。
日本政策利率的小幅上调不应该产生如此大的影响。我认为投资者基本认同这一点，这就是反弹的原因。从这个角度来看，也可以说日本银行的加息和相应的指引是成功的。因为他们能够通过加息，在一定程度上调整货币的汇率水平，并降低消费者的成本，日本目前的经济实力依然强劲。
Bank of Japan (BOJ) is trying to engineer a soft landing as well
China Fund News: After a very tumultuous week, we see capital flow back to Japan. Do you think global investors celebrated prematurely?
Sharef: Japan is currently seeing positive nominal growth and positive inflation, or a resurgence of economic dynamism. Companies have also improved their balance sheets as a function of corporate governance reform over time. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has been trying to navigate a soft landing as well. The main difference between the Fed and the BOJ is the BOJ is coming from the bottom (in terms of interest rates) and the Fed is trying to land from the top.A slight hike in the Japanese policy rate should not have as big an impact as it did in the market. And I think investors generally agree, which is why you are seeing the rebound. From that perspective, you could argue that the hike and the corresponding guidance that the BOJ provided was successful because they were able to produce a hike, adjusting the currency to some extent, and reducing the cost for consumers. I think economic strength will remain in Japan at this point in time.盛宜铭：常见的指标包括通胀、消费增长和消费者行为，因为这些指标受货币变化影响最大。China Fund News: What economic indicators should we watch in Japan?Sharef: The usual ones: inflation but also consumption growth and consumer behavior because these indicators will be most impacted by changes in the currency as well.中国基金报：与以前相比，中国债券在组合中扮演的分散风险角色是否有变化？盛宜铭：是的。过去我们没有看到中国人民银行和美联储之间有太多的相关性，我们也不会看到中国和美国启动完全同步的降息周期。基于多元化考虑，配置中国债券是有道理的。我从量化的角度思考这个问题。我关注历史相关性矩阵，并相应地优化投资组合。投资者有理由配置中国国债，这是基于多元化和相应的可得的机会做出的考量。Chinese Bond Market: A Robust Diversification ToolChina Fund News: Does the diversification appeal of Chinese bonds still hold true in today's market?Sharef: We haven't seen that much correlation between People's Bank of China (PBoC) and the Fed, and we're not going to see a synchronized cutting cycle between China and the Fed. So there is a certain diversification argument that still makes sense. I think of this from a quant-type perspective, where I look at the historical correlation matrices and optimize my portfolio accordingly. So this gives you reasons to allocate to Chinese government bonds. It's just based on diversification and the corresponding opportunity set.中国基金报：考虑到美联储即将降息，现在是时候关注标准普尔500指数中“七雄”之外的股票了么?盛宜铭：如果我们回顾过去美联储降息和降息周期的历史，通常在这段时期，股票指数表现相对较好。降息周期通常也与后周期重叠，因此在这些时期表现最好的股票往往是那些高质量、资产负债表相对强劲的股票，主要是大盘股。降低利率会降低贴现率，这有利于长期投资项目，包括一些更具投机性的科技类项目，也有利于人工智能资本支出。因此，很难说当前的经济环境偏爱小盘价值股。当谈论标准普尔500指数减去七大股票时，人们所指的通常是小盘价值股。但我认为，当我们考虑标准普尔500指数去除七大股票之外的部分时，我们应该注意到，从融资和借贷的角度来看，它们也会因低利率而获益。它们的人工智能资本支出也会得到相应的回报。此外，更广泛的经济生产率的影响也会影响这些公司。但是，如果只看因子的历史表现，大盘科技股通常仍然倾向于率先继续跑赢。尽管如此，每个周期在其他方面都完全不同。我们已经看到人工智能相关股票和七大股票出现了相当大的反弹，所以起点可能与我们过去看到的有点不同。China Fund News: Given the Fed cuts on the horizon, do you think it's time for the S&P 500 minus the Magnificent Seven stocks? Sharef: If we look at history around past Fed cuts and the starts of the cutting cycles, equities typically perform relatively well during that period as a broad index. But those cutting cycles are generally also associated with late-cycle behavior, so the best performing equities during those periods tend to be those that have high quality, often relatively strong balance sheets, sometimes mostly large caps. Fundamentally, cutting interest rates also reduces your discount rates. And so that favors longer-term investment projects, including some more speculative tech-type projects. And that also favors, for example, AI CapEx.So, it's hard to necessarily argue that the environment favors small-cap value at that point. Small-cap value usually refers to the S&P 500 minus the Magnificent Seven, not necessarily the Russell. But I think the way to think about the S&P 500 minus the Magnificent Seven is partially that to the extent that they are also more dependent on financing and borrowing rates, they would do a little bit better with lower rates. Their AI CapEx would pay off also, and eventually, the broader productivity impact on the broader economy would benefit those companies as well.But just looking at the historical behavior of these factors, large-cap tech would generally still tend to be the first to continue to outperform. That said, every cycle has been totally different in every other way. We've already had a pretty significant rally in the AI-related names and Magnificent Seven. So the starting point is maybe a little bit different from what we've seen in the past. 中国基金报：投资者情绪怎么样？投资者对大型科技股的情绪是否有所减弱?盛宜铭：我认为估值并没有膨胀太多，主要是因为当你看这些股票的市盈率和相应的盈利预测时，它们的盈利一直很强劲，而且一直在增长。上个月投资者情绪有一点转变, 但这些股票中的大多数在一定程度上恢复了。China Fund News: What about investor sentiment? Do you think it has weakened a bit for those large tech names?Sharef: I think valuations have not deteriorated all that much, mainly because when you look at PE ratios and the corresponding earnings forecasts for these names, their earnings have been quite strong and growing throughout.I think there was a bit of a shift in investor sentiment last month, but most of these names have recovered to some extent.中国基金报：我想了解你对中国股市的看法。现在是时候在中国市场（在岸或离岸）增加仓位了吗? 盛宜铭：中国股市有一些机会，我们通过综合的研究框架发现了这些机会。并不一定说，指数整体变得比过去便宜特别多。当我查看PIMCO基于复合框架的系统策略组合时，它们对中国股票略有超配，体现在与科技和通信服务相关的股票上面。这些公司具有广泛的吸引力，不那么依赖经济周期。China Fund News: I want to get your view on Chinese equities. Do you think it's time to accumulate positions in the Chinese market, onshore or offshore?Sharef: While there are some opportunities in the Chinese equity market when we look through this multi-factor framework, it's not necessarily the case that the index as a whole has become that much cheaper. When I look at the holdings and our systematic strategies that are based on these types of factor investments, they do end up with a slight overweight to Chinese equities, but very specific names related to technology and communication services that have more broad-based appeal and are not necessarily as cyclically dependent.
